Resolving neighborhood scale in air toxics modeling: a case study in Wilmington, CA.

Air quality modeling is useful for characterizing exposures to air pollutants. Whereas models typically provide results on regional scales, new concerns regarding the potential for differential exposures among racial/ethnic populations and income strata within communities are driving the need for increasingly refined modeling approaches. These approaches need to be capable of resolving concentrations on the scale of tens of meters, across modeling domains 10-100 km2 in size. One approach for refined air quality modeling is to combine Gaussian and regional photochemical grid models. In this paper, the authors demonstrate this approach on a case study of Wilmington, CA, focused on diesel exhaust particulate matter. Modeling results suggest that pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of emission sources are elevated, and, therefore, an understanding of local emission sources is necessary to generate credible modeling results. A probabilistic evaluation of the Gaussian model application indicated that spatial allocation, emission rates, and meteorological data are important contributors to input and parameter uncertainty in the model results. This uncertainty can be substantially reduced through the collection and integration of site-specific information about the location of emission sources and the activity and emission rates of key sources affecting model concentrations.